YouGov Poll Indicates Australian Labor Party Favors Ahead of Federal Election

In the latest public data poll from YouGov ahead of the 2025 Federal Election, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) appears poised to retain government, demonstrating a two-party preferred lead of 52.2% to 47.8% over the Coalition. This poll, which sampled 3,003 Australians from April 24 to May 1, reflects only a marginal swing of +0.07% in favor of Labor since the last federal election in 2022. Notably, the stagnation in support underscores the political landscape's challenges amidst the rising cost of living, which has emerged as a primary voter concern. The declining popularity of the Coalition is particularly highlighted by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's alarming net satisfaction rating of -24%, the lowest recorded for a major party leader this term, according to YouGov data. The Coalition's primary vote stands at 31.4%, a minor uptick of +0.4%, while Labor's primary support has dropped to 31.1% (-2.4%). Additionally, there has been a noticeable decrease in support for One Nation by -2%, bringing their figures down to 8.5%. Meanwhile, both the Greens and Independents have gained ground, rising to 14.6% (+0.6%) and 6.7% (+1.7%) respectively. These fluctuations may signal shifting dynamics in voter sentiment, particularly as economic stressors loom large. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has increased his standing as the preferred Prime Minister to 51%, contrasting sharply with Dutton, who stands at 34%. This notable 17-point lead suggests a more profound voter alignment with Labor in the face of pressing socio-economic challenges, including the surging costs of rent and essential goods. As we approach the election, the ramifications of the economic landscape cannot be understated. The survey highlights the critical need for both parties to address voter concerns while navigating increasingly complex issues such as housing affordability and climate action. YouGov’s prediction of a Labor majority federal win emphasizes not only the disapproval of Dutton amongst voters but also the tentative confidence many have in the Albanese government despite its own challenges. Furthermore, with earlier early voting indicating significant participation—over 7 million Australians already casting their votes—it’s essential to remember that the undecided voter segment remains a critical factor. Approximately 5% of the electorate is still undecided, presenting the potential for shifts in voting dynamics up until the election, especially within battleground constituencies. This data, alongside insights from prominent polling analyses, emphasizes a need for the Labor Party to consolidate on its current lead while addressing the multifaceted concerns of voters heading into the final phase of campaigning leading up to Saturday’s election.