Trump Administration Prepares to Lift Sanctions on Syria

Trump Administration Prepares to Lift Sanctions on Syria

The Trump administration is poised to announce significant sanctions relief for Syria, offering a general license, termed GL 25, which would encompass the Syrian central bank and facilitate reconstruction and other economic endeavors. This decision, drawn from a U.S. official who spoke anonymously, is also likely to include a waiver of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, potentially effective for an indefinite or timed period.

As the White House nears the completion of this plan, an announcement is anticipated by Tuesday, if not as early as Friday evening. This prospective waiver comes on the heels of President Donald Trump's declaration on May 13, where he expressed intentions to lift sanctions on Syria to "give them a chance at greatness." The day following his announcement, Trump held discussions with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a figure who led the coalition of rebel groups that overthrew Bashar al-Assad, the long-time dictator of Syria, last December.

In the wake of Trump's proclamation, debates have emerged within the administration about how to approach sanctions relief: whether to pursue maximum immediate relief or adopt a more gradual, conditional process. Some administration officials, particularly advocates of a tough stance, formulated a three-phase roadmap for Syria, suggesting measures such as the complete incorporation of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into the military and the expulsion of Palestinian militant groups operating in Syria.

Recently appointed U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has shown support for more vigorous engagement and enhanced sanctions relief. He is scheduled to visit Damascus shortly to confer with Sharaa.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned during a Senate committee hearing that Syria's nascent government faces potential collapse within weeks, threatening the possibility of an “epic” civil war if U.S. sanctions are not alleviated swiftly.

The Strategic Shift in U.S. Policy

The recent actions mark the Trump administration's first major step toward delivering on a surprising shift in policy regarding U.S. relations with Syria. On Friday, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced broad relief that would allow investment and private sector activity under the framework of Trump’s America First strategy. Concurrently, the State Department issued a waiver for the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, thereby enabling partners and allies of the U.S. to potentially unlock Syria’s economic potential.

Secretary Rubio emphasized that this waiver would enhance essential services like electricity, energy, water, and sanitation, contributing to a more effective humanitarian response across Syria. This authorization permits new investments, financial services, and transactions related to Syrian petroleum products.

The ramifications of Trump's commitment to lift sanctions could be expansive, as Syria attempts to recover from years of abuse under Assad’s regime and nearly 13 years of civil conflict that culminated in an economy ravaged by war. Reports indicate close to 657,000 fatalities since 2011, alongside an estimated economic loss of $442 billion during the first eight years of conflict alone.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the feasibility of sanctions relief, challenges remain, particularly with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, enacted in 2019 to impose broad sanctions against the Assad government and its affiliates for human rights violations. Lifting all restrictions imposed by this act would require Congressional action, though the President retains authority to issue temporary waivers, a move the Trump administration has pursued.

This path toward sanctions relief could signify a critical juncture in U.S.-Syria relations, evoking a spectrum of responses from differing political factions as they grapple with how best to manage the complex aftermath of the persistent humanitarian crisis in Syria.