Tourism industry experts expect visits to California to decline for the first time since the pandemic, due in part to economic and political uncertainty.

California's tourism sector, a crucial pillar of the state's economy, faces an unprecedented decline in visitor numbers for the first time since COVID-19 disrupted global travel. Visit California, the nonprofit organization that steers the state's tourism promotion, has issued a forecast indicating that total visitor numbers are expected to drop by 0.7% in 2025 compared to 2024. The more alarming figure, however, is the anticipated 9.2% decline in international visitors, particularly from Canada and Mexico—the state’s top foreign markets. Caroline Beteta, the CEO of Visit California, highlighted during a recent press conference that economic and geopolitical challenges, such as inflation exacerbated by tariffs and the 'Trump Slump,' are largely responsible for these projections. This downturn reflects a broader sentiment shift toward the U.S., where visitors may feel deterred by trade policies and an uncertain political landscape. For context, Canadian tourists alone brought over $3.72 billion to California in 2024, with projections now indicating a possible 20% reduction in this income source. The Canadian dollar's declining value against the U.S. dollar has been cited as a psychological barrier adversely affecting travel decisions. Mexican tourist arrivals are also expected to drop nearly 12%, influenced by similar factors, including immigration and visa stability, although concerns have surfaced regarding visa refusals at airports. Despite the downturn forecasted for international visits, domestic tourism appears more stable, with a call for Californians to explore their own state to bolster local economies. Business travel, particularly in San Francisco, shows promise with busy convention schedules set to keep tourist revenue flowing, at least temporarily. Furthermore, Governor Gavin Newsom's administration has launched initiatives aimed at rekindling relationships with neighboring Canadian travelers, including appealing marketing campaigns like 'California Loves Canada,' which aims to highlight California’s welcoming nature at a time when political rhetoric may be creating divides. However, the overall economic context is increasingly concerning, as recession fears loom and could further exacerbate declines in tourism-related spending, highlighting the fragility of recovery in this critical sector. Ultimately, while California remains a top travel destination, sustained international relations and careful navigation of current political climates will be essential to stimulating future tourism growth and maintaining economic stability.