Three times as many Canadians are staying away from the U.S. than the national travel industry first predicted—setting up a potential $6 billion economic loss this year.

Recent data from Statistics Canada indicates a significant decline in Canadian travelers heading to the United States, with road trips dropping by 32% and air travel down by 13.5% compared to March 2024. This trend marks the third consecutive month of decreased travel into the U.S. and is estimated to incur potential economic losses of up to $6 billion for the U.S. economy in 2025 due to this drop in visitors. The U.S. Travel Association (USTA) highlighted that even a marginal decline in Canadian tourism could have catastrophic implications for the hospitality and service sectors, threatening as many as 140,000 jobs. Increased tariffs from the Trump administration appear to play a pivotal role in the slump, prompting Canadian travelers to reconsider their cross-border visits. Moreover, other international markets have also shown declines, including a 17% drop in inbound travel from Western Europe. The substantial reduction in Canadian visitors is particularly impactful, given that they represent a quarter of all foreign tourists to the U.S. Following two years of robust growth, the statistics reveal a troubling downturn that could exacerbate the current travel industry's struggles. Airlines are responding predictably; major carriers such as Delta and United are reducing their flight capacities across Canada-U.S. routes, leading to fewer available seats as demand diminishes. The outlook does not appear promising with ongoing assessments indicating more declines in flight bookings as peak summer approaches. In contrast, return trips by Canadians from other destinations to Canada witnessed a rise, suggesting a potential shift in travel preferences attributed to rising tensions and perceived risks associated with travel to the U.S. This behavioral shift could have long-term implications not only for cross-border tourism but also for the broader economic dynamics between Canada and the U.S. As we analyze this situation, it remains critical to evaluate how geopolitical rhetoric influences travel patterns and economic interdependence between nations. The current data and trends are concerning and warrant close monitoring, particularly as the situation develops heading into the summer travel season.