The Evolving Impact of NIL and Transfer Portal on College Football and NFL Draft

In recent years, Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal system have transformed the landscape of college football, with significant ramifications that reverberate up to the NFL level. Implemented in the fall of 2018, the transfer portal has facilitated player movement, further amplified by the introduction of NIL in 2021, which allows college athletes to profit from endorsements. These developments sparked concerns that small schools might struggle to develop NFL-caliber talent, as players transfer to more prestigious Power 5 programs in search of broader exposure and financial opportunity. The data collected over a decade suggests some nuances counter to initial apprehensions. Prospects from Group of 5 and smaller schools continue to find success, including ten drafted in the first round over recent years. Notably, there is a suggestion that smaller prospects might be transferring to Group of 5 programs, offsetting any losses to Power 5 migrations. This shifting dynamic has prompted NFL decision-makers to adapt, with veteran executives like Rick Spielman highlighting the newfound ability for athletes to leverage their college tenure for improved draft stock, thanks to NIL benefits and development opportunities. Football operations director Eric Galko and other industry insiders emphasize that allowing players to earn while staying in college can lead to more refined prospects entering the NFL. Despite the trend of transferring up, some non-Power 5 players still capture attention, as seen with top performing prospects like Jeanty and Green, among others expected to make waves in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. As decision-makers assess talent, evaluating draft picks reveals potential organizational philosophies concerning non-Power 5 athletes. There remains a need for more comprehensive data to ascertain the strategies employed by newer general managers. Nevertheless, the draft setting continues to be a stage for diverse talent from varied programs, as highlighted by the various prospects preparing for April's draft at Lambeau Field. The analysis of NCAA player movement reveals complex layers to collegiate and professional football ecosystems, challenging preconceived notions regarding talent development pathways.