The continued release of greenhouse gases could increase the longevity of space junk in low Earth orbit, new paper reveals

A groundbreaking study led by MIT's William Parker outlines a concerning relationship between climate change and the accumulation of space debris. As greenhouse gases continue to rise, the thermosphere, which supports low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, is predicted to cool and contract. This reduction in atmospheric density decreases the drag experienced by both active satellites and defunct ones, prolonging their lifetimes in orbit. By the year 2100, scenarios with moderate to high carbon emissions could diminish safe operational capacity in LEO by as much as 82%, raising fears of a Kessler syndrome—a catastrophic cascade of satellite collisions leading to dangerous levels of debris. Parker emphasizes that the implications of climate change are now permeating all facets of Earth’s domain, including the space above us, thus necessitating prompt global action. The potential for more collisions and a more cluttered orbital environment underscores the need for coordinated strategies to manage satellite deployment and address greenhouse gas emissions. The implications extend beyond just environmental considerations; they also raise significant economic concerns regarding the future of satellite communications and global positioning systems reliant on stable satellite networks. With current research underscoring the non-linear relationship between greenhouse gases and satellite longevity, it becomes crucial for stakeholders in space policy and satellite technology to integrate climate goals into their operational frameworks. This analysis has been reviewed and supported by artificial intelligence technology, solidifying the need for collaborative efforts to maintain sustainable practices both on Earth and in space.