The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has shown a persistent struggle against the US Dollar (USD) for the second day in a row, as observed in market trends on Friday. The AUD/USD pair continues to fluctuate downward, influenced significantly by renewed trader focus on upcoming economic indicators, particularly the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report set to be released later in the North American session. This reflects underlying tensions in both global trade and economic performance that appear to be weighing on the Australian currency. Recent data from China's Trade Balance revealed a substantial increase in the trade surplus to USD 170.52 billion for February, a significant jump from USD 158.44 billion in the corresponding period last year. However, this was contrasted by a shocking downturn in imports, which plummeted by 8.4%, counter to expectations of an increase. The robust trade surplus was primarily propelled by stagnant import growth while export figures also fell short, growing by only 2.3% year-over-year against a forecast of 5%. This underperformance adds to concerns around the sustainability of demand from one of Australia's largest trading partners, further complicating the outlook for the AUD. Traders are also keeping a close eye on international trade developments, especially with Canada's postponement of the second round of retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which will now take effect on April 2. The backdrop of Trump’s exclusion of goods from Mexico and Canada from proposed tariffs under the USMCA could influence market sentiments leading to the US critical economic announcements. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has retained its growth outlook, estimating a slow drift towards 2% economic growth by 2025, although the previous measures that supported AUD's rise now evoke cautious sentiment among investors regarding possible shifts in policy dictated by inflationary pressures and labor market changes. In the face of these global uncertainties, the AUD struggled to capitalize on a stronger-than-expected domestic GDP report. Australia's Q4 GDP grew by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.5% and showing gains over the previous quarter’s 0.3%. Nonetheless, this positive news has been overshadowed by geopolitical concerns, notably rising tensions involving trade sanctions with China, which explicitly stated readiness for 'any type' of war in response to escalating tariffs from Trump’s administration. Given that China remains Australia’s main trade partner, such developments are likely to exert downward pressure on the Australian Dollar. Currently, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6320, confined within an ascending channel pattern indicating potential bullish sentiments in the long term. Technical analysis suggests that immediate resistance is positioned at a recent three-month high of 0.6408, while significant support is noted at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6309. Analysts indicate that a breach below this support could trigger heightened bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines toward the four-week low of 0.6187 noted on March 5. In summary, while the markets are witnessing some bullish tendencies for the AUD, the prevailing atmosphere remains muddled by global trade anxieties and policy uncertainties. Investors are advised to tread cautiously, with the commentary of this article having been analyzed and reviewed by artificial intelligence for precision and insight.