Support for Peter Dutton’s Coalition Has Crashed While Support for the ALP Hits New High

According to a recent YouGov poll, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has achieved a significant lead in voter support, marking its highest levels since coming to power three years ago. With the primary vote for Anthony Albanese’s ALP rising to 33.5%—an increase from 33% just a week prior—Peter Dutton’s Coalition has suffered a decline, falling by 2 percentage points to 31%. The poll indicates that if elections were held today, the Coalition would receive the lowest vote since the formation of the Liberal Party in 1944, as stated by Paul Smith, YouGov’s director of public data. The ALP now leads the Coalition significantly on a two-party preferred basis, with a remarkable 53.5% to 46.5%. The data reveals that Labor is dominating in nearly every state except Queensland, especially in critical outer metropolitan areas which may decide the upcoming election results. Interestingly, the Greens have seen a slight uptick to 14%, while support for Independents has plummeted from 10% to 5%. In demographic terms, Albanese has solidified his position as the preferred Prime Minister across all segments of the electorate, achieving 50% compared to Dutton's 35%. Albanese's appeal seems to resonate even in outer metropolitan regions where the Coalition has historically performed well, earning 50% support versus Dutton's 32%. This includes rural voters who now show a preference for Albanese (45%) over Dutton (42%). Despite both leaders facing negative satisfaction ratings, Dutton's is particularly troubling, standing at -18%, which is the lowest recorded in recent terms. The polling was conducted with a sample size of 1500 between April 17 and April 22, 2025, and this data is coupled with increasingly high pre-poll voter turnout, which increased by 72% compared to the previous election's first-day voting. Overall, the political landscape now appears increasingly favorable for the ALP, highlighting potential challenges ahead for Dutton and the Coalition as the May 3 election approaches. The polling data demonstrates a clear shift in public sentiment, which could reshape Australia’s political future if the trend continues. As we move closer to the election, the importance of voter engagement and media support for independent journalism becomes increasingly relevant, as echoed in the call for subscriptions to 'fearless, independent media'.