WASHINGTON — A relic from the Soviet space race era, the Kosmos-482 spacecraft, is poised to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere, potentially impacting the planet in the early hours of Saturday. Originally designed for a mission to Venus, this spacecraft has been orbiting Earth since its launch in 1972, after a malfunction prevented it from proceeding to its intended destination.
The European Space Agency has estimated that the capsule will re-enter around 2 a.m. Eastern time on Saturday morning, with a re-entry window extending from 10 p.m. ET on Friday to 6 a.m. ET on Saturday. The re-entry prediction map from the Aerospace Corporation supports this estimate, forecasting the object’s atmospheric descent to occur at 05:54 UTC (1:54 a.m. Eastern).
Given the complexities involved in tracking space debris, determining the exact landing site remains a challenge. Kosmos-482, which is approximately 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, is believed to have been traversing a highly elliptical orbit and gradually descending over the last 53 years. Experts speculate that the spacecraft’s parachute system has likely been compromised during its extensive time in orbit. However, its durable Soviet construction, specifically the heat shield, is expected to withstand the intense heat and pressure generated upon re-entry.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek noted that the capsule was built to endure the scorching environment of Venus, with temperatures reaching 867 degrees Fahrenheit, which bodes well for its survival as it re-enters Earth's atmosphere. Experts suggest that it is probable the capsule will land in a body of water, which is not surprising considering over 71% of Earth’s surface is covered by water.
- Key Points:
- 71% of the Earth is water, reducing the likelihood of impact on populated areas.
- The impact speed, if the capsule remains intact, is estimated at 150 mph (242 kph).
- The risk of harm from the falling object is very low, akin to that of a random meteorite fall.
Marco Langbroek emphasized that while risks exist, they are comparable to those encountered with meteorites, which generally pose negligible dangers. Similarly, according to University of Colorado Boulder scientist Marcin Pilinski, the chances of the capsule striking inhabited regions are exceedingly low.
The United Nations treaty stipulates that any surviving pieces from the re-entry will be considered the property of Russia.
An update from the European Space Agency at 9 a.m. ET on May 9 indicated that the re-entry window slightly adjusted to 2:26 a.m. ET on May 10, plus or minus 4.35 hours. The capsule, constructed with a titanium shell insulated for thermal resistance, weighs approximately 1,190 pounds (495 kilograms).
Historically, the Kosmos-482 craft is part of the Soviet Union’s ambitious Venera program, which has made remarkable advancements in space exploration, including the successful landings of several probes on Venus. The first such successful landing occurred in 1970 with the Venera 7, followed by significant achievements, such as sending back color images from the planet in 1982.
This long-awaited re-entry of Kosmos-482 serves as a reminder of our ongoing relationship with past space missions. For those interested in tracking the re-entry, updates are available through ESA's live blog or satellite tracking websites.
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