Old Soviet Spacecraft Kosmos 482 Set for Potential Reentry Between May 8 and 11, 2025

Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched on March 31, 1972, is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere between May 8 and 11, 2025, after spending an astounding 53 years in orbit. Originally intended to land on Venus, the spacecraft became stranded in Earth's orbit due to a premature engine cutoff. This remarkable bit of space history, now considered space debris, has some unique characteristics that could affect its descent. Unlike the majority of space junk that disintegrates upon reentry, Kosmos 482 was designed to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere. Experts believe that due to its robust construction, it has a significantly higher chance of surviving reentry and reaching the Earth's surface, potentially as intact fragments. Amateur astronomer Marco Langbroek predicts that the reentry could happen around May 9, 2025, with a degree of uncertainty still present. Factors such as solar activity could influence the reentry timing, as increased solar activity can warm and expand Earth’s upper atmosphere, subsequently increasing atmospheric drag on orbiting objects like Kosmos 482. This spacecraft weighs approximately 495 kilograms and measures about one meter in diameter; it is roughly the same size as the meteoroid responsible for the Chelyabinsk event in 2013. Despite the concern, experts maintain that the risk to people on Earth is minimal. Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist, has previously calculated the odds of such an impact occurring to be about one in 10,000. Generally, reentering debris tends to fall in oceans or uninhabited regions, with the high probability of debris survival due to Kosmos 482's Venusian design. Nonetheless, as the date approaches, continuous monitoring by organizations like the Aerospace Corporation and SatTrackCam Leiden will provide updates on should-be precise reentry predictions and locations. In summation, while there are risks associated with uncontrolled reentries, for the majority of the global population, there remains little cause for alarm.