Nintendo Expects Strong Launch for Switch 2 with 15 Million Units Sold by March 2026

Nintendo reported that it anticipates selling 15 million units of its upcoming Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a notable forecast since the announcement of its successor to the wildly popular Switch device set to launch in June. Following a dismal fiscal fourth quarter where revenue fell 24.7% and profit dropped nearly 50% year-on-year—predictions that echoed expectations as fans refrain from purchases in anticipation of the new console—Nintendo adjustments reflected a cautious outlook amid market uncertainties. Notably, the company had previously reduced its sales forecast for the existing Switch, achieving 10.8 million units sold compared to its 11 million forecast. The forecast aligns with insights from market research firm Omdia, claiming that the Switch 2 may outpace its ancestor, estimating 14.7 million units could be sold in just 2025. The projection is buoyed by a substantial active user base, with over 100 million users ready to transition to the Switch 2, bolstering its strong market entry. However, investors remain cautious, given the fiscal year projection for net sales at 1.9 trillion yen falling short of expectations, combined with uncertainties around tariff implications for consoles manufactured in Vietnam. Nintendo's President, Shuntaro Furukawa, highlighted that rising tariffs could adversely impact U.S. demand should price adjustments occur. Such adjustments, as pointed out by industry analysts, amplify uncertainty in console sales predictions. Serkan Toto, from Kantan Games, noted Nintendo’s conservative nature in sales forecasting, exacerbated now by potential unpredictability in tariffs affecting profits. The upcoming Switch 2 will retail at a starting price of $449.99 and is expected to launch alongside two major game titles, including 'Mario Kart World' and 'Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour', capitalizing on beloved franchises to drive adoption. The original Switch, since its launch in 2017, has surpassed 150 million units sold, with a robust portfolio of top-tier games extending its lifecycle. In summary, while Nintendo is gearing up for a significant release that could rejuvenate its sales trajectory, the surrounding economic landscape and tariff complexities pose challenges that may temper investor optimism. As Nintendo navigates these two fronts — the anticipation of the new console amidst a competitive gaming market and the operational impacts of international tariffs — its strategic moves in marketing and product positioning will be crucial to its sustained success in the gaming industry.