LONDON — Keir Starmer has pledged to prepare the U.K. for potential conflict, but his plans for defense spending seem to lack the commitment necessary to achieve that goal.
In advance of Monday’s Strategic Defense Review (SDR) launch, the Prime Minister emphasized the nation's shift toward "warfighting readiness" as the primary focus for its armed forces. The SDR is a comprehensive framework detailing the significant threats the U.K. faces and strategizing on how to confront them.
The document outlines over 60 initiatives aimed at enhancing the U.K.'s military capabilities and ensuring support for allies. Key recommendations include:
- Expansion of the submarine program expected to generate 30,000 new jobs.
- An investment of £1.5 billion in technology to expedite battlefield decision-making.
- Development of a "hybrid" Royal Navy, integrating drones with traditional naval forces.
The SDR advocates for a focus on responding to prevalent threats to European partners, aligning with a "NATO-first approach." However, despite the bold language in the SDR, Starmer's commitments on defense spending appear hesitant. He has indicated an increase of the defense budget to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, yet raising it to 3 percent remains conditional, pending economic and fiscal circumstances.
This lack of clarity has raised alarms among Members of Parliament and defense experts, highlighting a potential inadequacy in addressing the most critical challenge outlined in the SDR—the threat posed by Russian aggression. As stated in the report, "State conflict has returned to Europe, with Russia showing a readiness to utilize military force, jeopardizing civilian safety, and threatening nuclear weaponry to meet its objectives."
Starmer's recent visit to the Govan shipyard in Glasgow was an attempt to rally national unity and frame a collective response. He articulated a vision for engaging the nation in a unified effort, outlined in the SDR's call for a "whole-of-society approach." The review recommends bolstering home defense, expanding the Cadet force, and implementing a "defense readiness bill," which would empower the government to mobilize reserves and industry in times of crisis. Separately, Defense Secretary John Healey has promised to achieve a force of 76,000 regular army troops by 2034.
Throughout the process, both Healey and Starmer have emphasized that enhancing the U.K.'s defense capabilities and supporting European neighbors would also spur domestic job growth and bolster economic development. One anonymous Number 10 source remarked that defense-related initiatives are inherently tied to economic strategy.
Nonetheless, Starmer faces challenges in cementing these links, constrained by the Treasury and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Healey's allies noted that the commitment to an increase to 2.5 percent was the result of persistent advocacy from the defense secretary, but the definitive commitment for 3 percent remains elusive, with Starmer's office suggesting this would only materialize in the next parliament, potentially stretching as far as 2034.
Critics from both political and defense arenas have voiced skepticism regarding the ability to fulfill SDR promises without a concrete financial plan. Shadow Defense Secretary James Cartlidge warned, "All of Labour's Strategic Defence Review promises will be taken with a pinch of salt unless they can demonstrate sufficient funding for them." Furthermore, Liberal Democrat defense spokesperson Helen Maguire cautioned that the review "risks becoming a damp squib."
The timeline for boosting defense funding is pivotal, especially considering how rapidly Russia could emerge as a threat to NATO after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine. Although the SDR refrains from offering a direct assessment, it notes that a sustained Russian war economy could expedite its military recovery.
In parliamentary discussions, Healey rebuffed critics, asserting confidence that the economic foundation would be laid under Chancellor Reeves, enabling the government to meet its 3 percent defense spending target in the next parliament. However, Whitehall officials indicated that a firm timeline for higher spending commitments cannot be confirmed beyond the current five-year spending review.
Starmer's assurance of achieving the SDR's objectives is undeniably tied to fiscal health, as he boldly stated he was "100 percent confident" in their deliverability. Nevertheless, the pressing question of the 3 percent defense spending figure remains prominent, especially as pressure mounts ahead of the NATO summit later this month, where allies are expected to commit to even higher military expenditures.
Meanwhile, divisions persist regarding the U.K.'s evolving security strategies, as evident from the contrasting narratives at the Brexit reset summit regarding participation in the EU's defense fund. As Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized, the U.K. aims to act decisively against Putin's military ambitions.
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