NASA's Ongoing Monitoring of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4, while currently too distant to be tracked via telescopes from Earth, has recently yielded valuable data thanks to the observations made by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope. Before the asteroid faded from view in its orbit around the Sun, the telescope managed to capture significant additional information.
The insights gathered by experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, have led to a refined understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory. Notably, the data from Webb has improved predictions regarding the asteroid's location on December 22, 2032 by nearly 20%. This refined trajectory has slightly increased the probability of the asteroid impacting the Moon, adjusting the likelihood from 3.8% to 4.3%. Importantly, even if an impact were to occur, it would not alter the Moon's orbit.
Assessing Risks to Earth
When 2024 YR4 was first identified, initial observations suggested a minor chance of the asteroid impacting Earth. However, continuing analyses led NRC experts to conclude that the asteroid does not pose significant risk to our planet in 2032 or thereafter.
It is standard practice for impact probability assessments to evolve as more data is collected. The observations made by an international team led by Dr. Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, utilized Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera in May, contributing to this ongoing refinement.
The Future of Observations
Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is too far from Earth to be observed by any telescopes, whether ground-based or in space. NASA plans to resume its observations once the asteroid's orbit brings it back into proximity of Earth in 2028, ensuring that scientists can maintain vigilant watch over this near-Earth object.
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