March New-Vehicle Sales Growth Expected, But Market Slowing Signs Emerge

According to the latest data from Cox Automotive, March new-vehicle sales are poised to grow compared to last year, although there are warning signs of a market slowdown. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for March is forecasted to reach 15.9 million, a slight uptick from March 2024's 15.7 million, yet a drop from February's 16.0 million. Despite a year-over-year sales volume decline of 1.4%, a 15% increase from February is anticipated due to seasonal influences and additional selling days. March is seen as pivotal, with economic uncertainty and fading effects of the post-election 'Trump bump' cited by Cox Automotive's Senior Economist, Charlie Chesbrough, as potential dampers on consumer demand. First-quarter sales are predicted to grow by 0.6% year-over-year to 3.79 million units, reflecting a 10% drop from the previous quarter's numbers. Rising vehicle costs and reduced incentives appear to slow the market, exacerbating affordability challenges amidst declining consumer confidence. The automotive industry's 2025 outlook has been revised downwards from 16.3 million to 15.6 million in light of these hurdles and incoming tariffs. Notably, economic uncertainties and a decrease in consumer confidence, reflected by a 7.2-point drop to 92.9 in the Consumer Confidence Index, play a significant role in this downturn. An analysis of this news underscores the complexity of the automotive market's current state, where short-term improvements in sales figures are overshadowed by longer-term obstacles such as pricing, economic uncertainties, and evolving consumer preferences. The concurrent replay of the Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Forecast 2025 Call reinforces these insights, with updates and forecasts provided by Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and team. In my commentary, these developments depict a mixed outlook for the automotive market, where cyclical sales fluctuations are compounded by broader economic conditions. As such, industry participants must navigate carefully through these uncertainties, balancing immediate market signals with strategic imperatives for sustained growth. Additionally, consumer affordability and confidence remain critical metrics to monitor closely as they bear heavily on market health.