Israel's Policy in Southern Syria: Navigating New Challenges Beyond the Golan

Over the past three months, Israel's focus has intensified on the shifting political landscape in southern Syria, particularly following the emergence of a new Syrian government post-Assad regime. Israeli officials have characterized Ahmed al-Sharaa as a jihadist leader, frequently issuing warnings regarding his administration's approach to governance in the region. Among these warnings is Israel's assertion that it will stand guard over the Druze community in southern Syria, a group that could potentially become entangled in the ongoing power struggles. Israel's strategic calculus seems to be evolving amid a backdrop of complexity that has emerged since the collapse of the Assad regime. Previously, the 'war between the wars' campaign comprised targeted airstrikes aimed at thwarting Iranian entrenchment in Syria. However, the rising threat from both Iranian influences and their proxies—especially Hezbollah—has spurred Israel to adopt a more proactive stance in the context of the newly formed Syrian government. It is noteworthy that while the downfall of the Assad regime may have initially seemed advantageous for Israel, it has since resulted in an increase in uncertainty. The absence of a strong central authority has created a vacuum, raising fears that new threats could emerge from factions capitalizing on instability. Israeli leaders have communicated a clear intention to promote demilitarization in southern Syria, seeing potential cooperation with groups like the Druze and Kurds as a means to strengthen stability. In a demonstration of military might, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently conducted a significant airstrike, deploying 22 jets and targeting multiple military installations used by the Syrian regime. This event illustrated Israel's ongoing commitment to maintaining intelligence operations in the region and neutralizing potential threats before they can materialize. Yet, these airstrikes also reveal the precarious nature of Israel's security strategy: while they may provide immediate relief, such actions lack the long-term solutions needed to stabilize the region. The impact of a weak Syrian regime on the security environment near the Golan Heights serves as a reminder that, historically, power vacuums have been filled by adversarial actors. This scenario has played out in other regions that Israel has contended with, such as the northern West Bank, Gaza, and southern Lebanon. The pressing question that arises is whether Israel's efforts to demilitarize southern Syria will prevent the newly established authorities in Damascus from consolidating power and securing their borders. With the new Syrian government currently facing numerous challenges—from dealing with internal conflict in Latakia to navigation of fraught relationships with various armed factions—its capability to manage the Dara’a region is under scrutiny. The potential for extremist groups, reminiscent of the ISIS-affiliated Khalid ibn al-Walid Army, to exploit any lapses in control poses a tangible threat to Israeli security. In conclusion, while Israel's strategy of targeted airstrikes may provide a temporary illusion of safety, they ultimately highlight the complexities of regional stability. The tumultuous history of the Syrian civil war warns that reliance on military intervention alone will not resolve the underlying issues that threaten long-term security. As Israel continues to navigate its policies along the Golan, it must remain vigilant and adaptive to the ever-evolving political landscape of Syria—a lesson underscored by the past and echoed by the experiences of its neighbors. This analysis has been thoughtfully reviewed and compiled with the assistance of artificial intelligence, lending an additional layer of rigor to the examination of Israel's geopolitical strategy.