Gov. Kathy Hochul's Budget May Not Be Enough to Boost Sagging Poll Numbers

New York Governor Kathy Hochul recently celebrated the passage of her comprehensive state budget, which comprises key initiatives on affordability, public safety, and mental health. However, despite achieving her legislative goals, she faces a challenging political landscape marked by declining approval ratings. Following an event at a child care center in Albany, Hochul emphasized her commitment to communicate these accomplishments to voters, stating, 'Now it’s my job to go out and let voters know what we’re doing for them.' The budget's provisions are generally well received, with a Siena College poll indicating that 61% of voters support her controversial school cellphone ban. Additionally, a significant majority backs the criminalization of mask threats and supports reforms such as revising discovery laws and expanding involuntary commitment. While many of Hochul’s policy priorities resonate with the electorate, there are potentially unpopular decisions, particularly the increased payroll mobility tax on large corporations intended to fund the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's capital plan. Similar taxes in the past have invited backlash, especially in suburban areas, with concerns that this new iteration could disproportionately affect city-based firms, stirring fear among suburban constituents regarding economic fairness. Manhattan Assemblyman Micah Lasher voiced his concerns, indicating that Hochul might be miscalculating the political ramifications of burden-sharing with suburban voters. The stakes are increasingly high for Hochul as she navigates impending primary challenges from political figures such as Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado and Congressman Ritchie Torres, alongside Republican contenders like Congressmembers Elise Stefanik and Mike Lawler. Public safety remains a contentious issue, previously deemed a weakness for Hochul, making the perception of her effectiveness in that domain crucial as some Republicans doubt voter appreciation of her recent legislative achievements. Assemblyman Edward Ra remarked that while Hochul will tout the budget as a public safety win, some elements—like changes to discovery—may be confusing to the average voter. Adding to her challenges are potential federal budget cuts that could negatively impact Medicaid and other social programs, against which she has already begun to draw attention to congressional Republicans’ influence. Intriguingly, one of the legislative maneuvers included a new requirement that candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in tandem during primaries, a move aimed at consolidating Hochul's political position by allowing her to select a running mate. This potentially strategic layer could influence future campaign dynamics as she prepares for the battles ahead. Overall, while Hochul has secured favorable aspects in her budget, whether these can translate into improved public perception remains to be seen, especially amidst the challenging metric of public sentiment surrounding her leadership. In conclusion, Hochul's situation elaborates on the ongoing complexities of governing in today's political environment, where popular policies can still lead to unforeseen pushback, especially in a state with diverse urban and suburban interests.