Germany and Allies Lift Arms Restrictions for Ukraine: A New Era in Defense Against Russia

Germany and Allies Lift Arms Restrictions for Ukraine: A New Era in Defense Against Russia

On Monday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a significant policy shift during a statement made at the WDR Europaforum 2025 in Berlin. Accompanied by France, the UK, and the US, Merz confirmed that these allies have removed the restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine, enabling the nation to defend itself more effectively against Russian military aggression.

In his address, Merz emphasized, "There are no longer any range restrictions on weapons delivered to Ukraine – neither by the British nor by the French nor by us nor by the Americans. This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, for example, by attacking military positions in Russia... With very few exceptions, it didn’t do that until recently.” This declaration marks the end of a long-standing self-imposed taboo that has dominated military support dynamics since the beginning of the conflict.

However, while the policy change is welcomed in Kyiv, it may also induce frustration. As of now, Ukraine is believed to have depleted a significant portion of the long-range missiles it received in prior years, raising questions about its capacity to capitalize immediately on the newfound liberty to strike targets across Russia.

Under the new directives, Ukraine's forces can utilize advanced weaponry, including the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow air-launched missiles from France and the UK, as well as ATACMS ballistic missiles from the US. These munitions were previously used by Ukraine to strike military positions within Russia, albeit under strict conditions that the new rules would help alleviate further.

Despite this promising pivots in military strategy, the question of missile inventory prevails. Reports suggest that Ukraine has received fewer than 50 ATACMS, with many likely expended in recent operations. In addition, the total stock of Storm Shadow missiles, originally procured by the three nations, is uncertain, with portions requiring refurbishment which might limit their availability.

Merz's announcement also sheds light on Germany's strategic shift regarding arms transfers, as he reaffirmed that Berlin would stop declaring its arms transfers to Ukraine. This is indicative of a new era of strategic ambiguity, where decisions may be made more discreetly to adapt to the dynamic nature of the conflict.

One potential asset on Germany's roster is the KEPD-350 Taurus stealth cruise missile, which has been under consideration for transfer to Ukraine but previously denied under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's leadership due to fears of escalation with Russia. If delivered, the Taurus missile boasts a range exceeding 310 miles, enhancing Ukraine's ability to strike deeper into Russian territory.

Amid these developments, it's important to note that Ukraine has already demonstrated operational success with Western-supplied long-range missiles. Notable achievements include critically impactful strikes that resulted in substantial Russian military losses. However, the ongoing conflict necessitates Ukraine to continuously adapt its strategy as Russia has also recalibrated its defenses by relocating vulnerable assets and bolstering its air defense systems in response to prior attacks.

Thus, a key consideration for Ukraine is the durability of its inventory. Questions linger around the effectiveness of the current stockpile of long-range missiles, and whether additional procurements can be secured from allies like the United States, including potential access to AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles compatible with F-16 aircraft.

The lifting of restrictions could eventually transform Ukraine's operational paradigm, empowering it to impede Russian military operations more aggressively. Nonetheless, without robust replenishment of its long-range missile capabilities, the impact of these new permissions may remain limited in the near term.