Fewer people than ever are prepared to vote Tory or Labour as Reform look set to claim hundreds of seats at this week’s local elections.

In a significant shift in the UK electoral landscape, Professor Sir John Curtice, a respected political analyst, has revealed that fewer than half of voters now express a commitment to the traditional main parties, Conservative and Labour. This unprecedented drop in support is being attributed to the rising popularity of Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, who is forecasted to capitalize on this disillusionment and secure several hundred council seats in the upcoming local elections. Curtice described Reform as having 'already won' the elections before the votes have even been counted, marking a turning point that could redefine the UK's political dynamics. Curtice's analysis highlighted that, historically, opposition parties have struggled to gain traction against the Tories and Labour, but the current landscape indicates a significant restructuring in voter loyalties. While Reform has traditionally siphoned votes from the Conservative Party, it is now also encroaching on Labour's support, suggesting a profound shift in political allegiances. This situation may allow the Liberal Democrats to gain ground in certain areas, benefiting from the fragmentation of the traditional voting bloc. As election day approaches, with over 1,600 council seats at stake and local mayoral races being contested, parties are bracing for what could be a transformative result. The context of this election is critical, serving as the first major test of Sir Keir Starmer's leadership of Labour after a troubling period following the autumn budget, while Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives face growing discontent among their base. The local elections occur against a backdrop of loss of confidence in existing political leadership, where rising dissatisfaction over issues such as the cost of living, healthcare, and immigration is paving the way for alternative parties. Focus groups taken across various regions indicate that while voters express some support for Reform's immigration policies, there is also skepticism toward Farage himself. The term 'baggage' has surfaced in discussions, hinting at the complexity of voter sentiment where support for Reform is driven by broader frustration with the established order rather than outright approval of its leader. Given the current trajectory, there’s a possibility that conventional party politics in the UK may be facing a long-term realignment, where voters increasingly turn to third parties, believing that established parties no longer represent their interests. The results from the election on May 1 may herald a historic break from the UK’s two-party dominance, reflecting a populace eager for genuine change and representation in governance.