Chances that the U.S. is heading for a recession are close to 50-50, according to a Deutsche Bank survey.

The article delves into the economic uncertainty facing the U.S. economy, highlighted by a Deutsche Bank survey which indicates a 43% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months. Despite low unemployment and signs of continued growth, there is rising concern among consumers and business leaders about economic stagnation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges these concerns but maintains a positive outlook on the economy. However, the Fed has adjusted its GDP growth forecast down to 1.7% for this year, the lowest since 2011 if excluding the 2020 Covid downturn. Concerns are further deepened by the potential for stagflation, reminiscent of the early 1980s, where inflation rates may rise while growth slows. The ongoing tariff policies spearheaded by the Trump administration, as discussed in Jill Lawrence's article for The Bulwark, evoke fear among economists of all ideologies due to their potential dire impacts on consumer prices and business operations. Economist Clement Bohr from UCLA Anderson warns that current administration tariffs, if not scaled back, could catalyze a recession or even stagflation. The article touches on the broader economic policies and their implications, with commentary articulating how Trump's economic strategies could impact various sectors, from Social Security to health care. Critics from diverse political spectrums, including influential past economists like Milton Friedman, vehemently oppose such tariff measures due to their potential to drive up consumer prices. Commentary also suggests that underlying issues could originate from broader federal policies, which may lead to adverse economic conditions if initiatives like aggressive tariffs continue unmoderated. The narrative builds on concerns surrounding potential SSA layoffs and Medicaid cuts, drawing a gloomy picture for some sectors of the U.S. population, particularly those most vulnerable or relying heavily on these programs.