ALP Maintains Slight Lead Ahead of Federal Election, But Trends Indicate Uncertain Outcome

According to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 21 to April 27, 2025, if a federal election had taken place last weekend, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) would have secured a slightly increased majority with 53% of the vote against the Liberal-National Coalition's (L-NP) 47% on a two-party preferred basis. This marks an increase of 0.9% for the ALP since the 2022 Federal Election, despite a notable two-party preferred swing of 2.5% toward the Coalition compared to just a week ago. Primary support for the major parties exhibited minimal fluctuation: the Coalition gained a marginal 0.5%, rising to 34.5%, while the ALP fell by the same percentage to 34.%. Meanwhile, support for minor parties also shifted, with the Greens dropping 1.5% to 13% and One Nation rising by the same percentage to 7.5%. This week, 11% of electors express a preference for other minor parties and independents - a statistic remaining consistent with the previous week. Importantly, sentiment indicators like the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating have dropped 4.5 points to 81.5, well below the neutral level of 100. The survey reveals a growing discontent among Australians, with 52.5% believing the country is heading in the wrong direction, an increase of 4.5%. The CEO of Roy Morgan, Michele Levine, highlights that while early voting has reduced the Albanese Government's lead, the ALP is still favored to win. Levine notes that approximately 2.4 million Australians have already voted, representing over 13% of total enrolment, and trends observed among early voters suggest that the Coalition is performing better. These factors imply that the final election results could be closer than current polls indicate, potentially leading to a minority government scenario for ALP if they do not secure a majority. As the election date approaches, the final pre-election poll will be monitored, particularly after the critical Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. This political climate presents a charged atmosphere as voters assess their options ahead of decision day.